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☆ India's central bank holds rate, looking for inflation 'elephant' to vanish
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

India's central bank held its key interest rate for a seventh straight policy meeting on Friday as growth in the economy is expected to remain robust while inflation stays above the 4% target. The six-member monetary policy committee kept the main lending rate at 6.5%, in line with expectations. While low core inflation provides comfort, the uncertainty on food inflation remains a worry. "While low core inflation provides comfort, the uncertainty on food inflation remains a worry," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks remains a key upside risk to food prices," the rate setting panel said in its monetary policy statement.

Persons: Shaktikanta Das, Das, Upasna Bhardwaj, Devendra Kumar Pant Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Kotak Mahindra Bank, U.S, NSE, BSE, Research Locations: India

REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Nov 16 (Reuters) - India's central bank on Thursday tightened norms for personal loans and credit cards, raising the risk of slowing loan growth. Reuters GraphicsRBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said last month the central bank was closely monitoring some fast-growing personal loan categories for signs of stress. Subsequently, Reuters reported that the RBI was particularly concerned with the surge in small personal loans and was considering tighter rules for such borrowings. Unsecured personal loans increased 23% from a year ago as of Sept. 22, 2023, while outstanding amounts on credit cards jumped nearly 30%, central bank data shows. "In particular, limits shall be prescribed for all unsecured consumer credit exposures," the central bank said.

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Dhananjay Sinha, Shaktikanta Das, Transunion, Systematix, Sinha, Siddhi Nayak, Ira Dugal, Shinjini Ganguli, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of, NBFCs, Systematix Research, Reuters, Siddhi, Sethuraman NR, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Reserve Bank of India, Bengaluru

While bad loans in India's banking sector are at a decade-low, estimated at 3.6% of assets by March 2024 by the central bank, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said this month the central bank was monitoring some categories of personal loans, without elaborating. What's worrying the regulator is a surge in tiny personal loans, particularly loans of up to 10,000 rupees ($120) taken for three to four months, often for "lifestyle" spending, according to a person familiar with the central bank's thinking. Four people discussed the central bank's concerns with Reuters but declined to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media. Ismail Sayyed, a 30-year old cab driver from Mumbai, took his first personal loan of 5,000 rupees this year. Central bank officials "have been ringing the bell", said an official at a large bank that has seen sharp growth in personal loans.

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Shaktikanta Das, CRIF, Ismail Sayyed, Kadam, Rajeev Jain, Ira Dugal, Sonali Paul Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, REUTERS, Reuters, Bajaj Finance, UBS, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India

☆ India's forex reserves drop for 4th week, fall to over 5-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

That was a decrease of $3.8 billion from the previous week. India's forex reserves are "sizeable" and "very comfortable," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday, while reiterating that the central bank's intervention aims to prevent any volatility of the rupee's exchange rate. Foreign exchange reserves include India's Reserve Tranche position in the International Monetary Fund. For the week the forex reserves data pertains, the rupee had fallen 0.1% against the dollar and traded in a range of 83.0225 and 83.2450. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES (in million U.S. dollars)Source text: (https://bit.ly/3PD1mzC)Reporting by Siddhi Nayak; editing by Eileen SorengOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Shaktikanta Das, Siddhi Nayak, Eileen Soreng Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, International Monetary Fund, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI

☆ India's August wholesale price index falls 0.52% y/y
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A worker carries a sack of potatoes at a wholesale market in Mumbai, India July 14, 2017. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW DELHI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - India's wholesale price index (INWPI=ECI) fell 0.52% in August from a year earlier, according to government data released on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had estimated the wholesale price index for August would fall 0.6%. Food prices rose 5.62% year-on-year, compared with a sharp rise of 7.75% in July, and manufactured product prices fell 2.37% in August, against a 2.51% fall the previous month. Reporting by Nikunj Ohri; Writing by Shivangi Acharya; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Shailesh Andrade, Shaktikanta Das, Nikunj Ohri, Shivangi Acharya, Jacqueline Wong, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, DELHI

☆ India central-bank chief urges fintech firms to form a self-regulatory body
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das speaks during a press conference after a G20 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank governors' meeting at Gandhinagar, India, July 18, 2023. "I would like to use this opportunity to urge and encourage the fintechs to establish a self-regulatory organisation or SRO themselves. From the Reserve Bank, we are willing to engage with you," Das said while delivering the keynote address at the Global FinTech Fest 2023 (GFF). The other advantage is that all the aspects of regulation will not be burdened on the Reserve Bank." Reporting by Siddhi Nayak and Swati Bhat; Editing by Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Shaktikanta Das, Amit Dave, Das, T, Rabi Sankar, Siddhi Nayak, Swati Bhat, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: Bank of India, Ministers, Central Bank governors, REUTERS, Rights, Financial, Reserve Bank of India, Reserve Bank, Global, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: Gandhinagar, India, Rights MUMBAI

☆ Indian lenders want cenbank to conduct more overnight reverse repo auctions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Dharamraj Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The RBI's overnight variable rate reverse repo, or VRRR - usually undertaken to withdraw excess liquidity - saw a subscription of only 390 billion rupees ($4.73 billion) earlier in the day. "But overnight VRRRs should see healthy responses if they do not coincide with any major outflows." That lead to a sharp plunge in overnight rates, averaging comfortably below the central bank's repo rate of 6.50%. The RBI has been intending to maintain overnight rates - currently around 6.40% - around the repo rate and has been proactive in conducting reverse repos to achieve that. Reuters had reported in June that the central bank may resort to overnight VRRRs, with banks showing reluctance to park funds for a longer period.

Persons: Banks, Mataprasad Pandey, Shaktikanta Das, Dharamraj Dhutia, Nivedita Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI

Despite hitting an 18-month low of 4.70% in April, analysts do not expect India's inflation to fall to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% medium-term target in a sustainable manner for some time. India has raised rates by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022, but surprised analysts in April by keeping them unchanged. India's hold on rates contrasts with recent central bank actions elsewhere. "Our goal is to achieve the inflation target of 4% and keeping inflation within the comfort band of 2-6% is not enough," Das said. Das said that the central bank would remain "nimble" with its liquidity operations amid spikes in overnight rates despite surplus liquidity in the banking system.

Persons: Shaktikanta Das, OIS, Das, Michael Patra, Suvodeep Rakshit, Gaura Sen Gupta, Swati Bhat, Sudipto Ganguly, Ira Dugal, Krishna N, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, MPC, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, IDFC, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Anushree, MUMBAI

MUMBAI, May 29 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India has come across instances of some banks trying to conceal the real status of their stressed assets while governance gaps have also been noticed at certain lenders, its governor said on Monday. Das also said that despite the guidelines on corporate governance, it was a matter of concern that the RBI has come across gaps in governance at certain banks, which have the potential to cause some volatility in the sector. "While these gaps have been mitigated, it is necessary that boards and the managements do not allow such gaps to creep in," he said. A robust governance structure is the most important requirement to ensure the stability of a bank and sustainable financial performance, Das added. "RBI has engaged with certain banks on the need to make suitable adjustments in their business strategies where it was observed that over-aggressive growth in certain business segments were creating avoidable vulnerabilities," Das said.

☆ India monetary tightening cycle not over, inflation remains a concern -MPC minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 20 (Reuters) - India's current rate tightening cycle may not be over as more hikes could be warranted to align inflation towards the central bank's medium term target of 4%, minutes of this month's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting showed on Thursday. "It is clear that the war against inflation has not yet been won, and it would be premature to declare an end to this tightening cycle," MPC member Jayant Varma wrote. Most members appeared more concerned about inflation than in their commentary after the previous policy meeting in February when the bank raised rates by 25 bps. The decision by OPEC+ to cut crude output and the possibility of weak monsoon rains could both push up inflation in India and necessitate a monetary policy response, Varma said. In the current situation of high inflation, monetary policy does not have the luxury of responding to these growth headwinds."

The central bank said its policy stance remains focused on "withdrawal of accommodation", signalling it could consider further rate hikes if necessary. The monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50%. Most analysts had expected one final 25 basis point hike in the RBI's current tightening cycle, which has seen it raise the repo rate by a total 250 bps since May last year. The central bank sees inflation at 5.2% in 2023-24, and GDP growth is seen at 6.5% in the financial year beginning April 1. Reuters GraphicsFinancial stability concerns appear to have prompted the pause in rate hikes, said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ Explainer: How resilient are Indian lenders amid a global banking turmoil?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

He does not foresee a direct impact of the global banking turmoil on Indian banks. HOW WELL CAPITALISED ARE INDIAN BANKS? Reuters GraphicsHOW ARE INDIAN BANKS' BOND PORTFOLIOS PERFORMING? Indian banks are not facing the same level of pressure on their bond portfolios as U.S banks because Indian interest rates have risen less. If Indian banks mark their held-to-maturity (HTM) investments to market, it would bring down their CET-1 capital by 12-25%, estimates Moody's Investors Service.

The central bank said that its policy stance remains focused on the withdrawal of accommodation, with four out of six members voting in favour of that position. Reuters GraphicsThe monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, raised the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) to 6.50% in a split decision. We have to remain unwavering in our commitment to bring down CPI headline inflation," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, while announcing the committee’s decision. In a poll conducted ahead of the federal budget on Feb. 1, more than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, had expected the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 bps. Das said that the inflation-adjusted, real interest rate remains below the pre-pandemic levels and liquidity remains surplus, even though it is lower than during the pandemic.

☆ No issue with crypto in India if laws are followed - minister
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, Jan 19 (Reuters) - India's junior IT minister on Thursday said there was no issue with cryptocurrencies in India if all laws are followed, in remarks that contradicted the central bank's view advising investors to stay away from crypto. India has been trying to come up with regulation for cryptocurrencies, with a central bank deputy governor even calling for them to be banned, but the government has not been able to formulate legislation yet. In Febraury, a deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), T. Rabi Sankar, said cryptocurrencies were akin to Ponzi schemes or worse and banning them was the most sensible option for India. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das also said in February that cryptocurrencies lacked the underlying value of even a tulip. Reporting by Shivam Patel in New Delhi; editing by Jason Neely and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Cryptocurrencies could cause the next financial crisis, Indian central bank head warns
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Arjun Kharpal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), called for private cryptocurrencies to be "prohibited." The next financial crisis will be caused by private cryptocurrencies, if these assets are allowed to grow, the head of India's central bank warned on Wednesday. Das' comments come as the central bank pushes to introduce its own digital version of the Indian rupee. The digital rupee is a type of central bank digital currency (CBDC). China's central bank is furthest ahead globally on the development of a CBDC.

☆ Crypto will ignite the next financial crisis if it's not banned — just look at the FTX fiasco, India's central bank boss says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

FTX's bankruptcy filing shows that crypto is a threat to the global financial system, according to Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das. "Mark my words, the next financial crisis will come from private cryptocurrencies," he added. Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das said Wednesday that digital assets lack any underlying value – and so they should be banned outright rather than regulated by governments. "They have no underlying value. Das's comments come as India assumes its presidency of the G20 – a group of countries including China, Russia, and the US.

☆ India cenbank chief says next financial crisis will come from private cryptocurrencies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MUMBAI, Dec 21 (Reuters) - India's central bank chief on Wednesday warned that the next financial crisis will come from private cryptocurrencies adding that he still holds the view that cryptocurrencies should be prohibited. Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das also added that cryptocurrencies have no underlying value and pose risks for macroeconomic and financial stability. Reporting by Swati Bhat and Siddhi Nayak; Writing by Nupur Anand; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the RBI and three external members, raised the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) to 6.25% in a majority decision. "The MPC was of the view that further calibrated monetary policy action was warranted to keep inflation expectations anchored, break core inflation persistence and contain second round effects,” Das said as he announced the monetary policy committee's decision. We see a possibility of another 25 bps rate hike before a prolonged pause," Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank said. A 6.8% growth (rate) is robust," Das said. The Indian rupee dipped against the dollar after the policy decision and comments on inflation, while government bond yields rose.

☆ India cenbank says digital currency transactions to stay largely anonymous
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

India started the pilot project for its digital currency, or e-rupee, from Nov 1, when it was opened for initial trial. Then only being used by banks for settlements with each other, the scope of the project was expanded to include consumers and retailers-led transactions from Dec. 1. "E-rupee is money, UPI is a payment method," RBI's Sankar said. "Digital currency is like payment of cash, it is possible that two private entities can provide wallet features and money can move in between them. That is not possible with UPI which has to be from one bank to the other," he said, adding that e-rupee provides privacy unlike UPI.

☆ India's Oct retail inflation eases, spurs smaller rate hike views
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The annual retail inflation was 7.41% in September. Food prices, which account for nearly 40% of the CPI basket, rose 7.01% in October, compared with 8.60% in September. Month-on-month retail inflation rose 0.80% in October, compared with the previous month, while retail food inflation rose 1.08% — reflecting inflationary pressures in the economy. Last week, ratings agency Moody's revised down India's GDP growth forecast to 7% in 2022, from earlier estimate of 7.7%, and to 4.8% in 2023. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core inflation rose 5.9% to 6.3% last month, according to three economists' estimates, compared to 6.07% to 6.1% in September.

☆ India's Oct inflation seen falling below 7% - central bank chief
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Nandan MandayamNEW DELHI, Nov 12 (Reuters) - India's retail price inflation is expected to fall below 7% in October from 7.41% in September, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Saturday. The medium-term inflation target should continue to be held at 4%, he added. "If it (inflation) remains above 6% for a prolonged period, it will be detrimental to growth, hence 6% has been kept as the upper tolerance band," he said. Das said it was too early to get into a debate about whether inflation is likely to stay higher for longer. The change in inflation target could indicate that the central banks are less committed to "fight the war against inflation.

☆ INDIA STOCKS Indian shares set for lower opening as Fed keeps hawkish stance
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

India's NSE stock futures, listed on the Singapore exchange , were 0.94% lower as of 0211 GMT. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday as widely expected and said its battle against inflation will require borrowing costs to rise further. Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors bought a net 14.36 billion Indian rupees ($173.61 million) worth of equities on Wednesday, while domestic investors sold 13.78 billion rupees of shares, as per provisional data available with the National Stock Exchange. ** Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services Ltd (MMFS.NS) reported September-quarter profit of 4.48 billion rupees, a 56.2% year-on-year decline. ($1 = 82.7120 Indian rupees)Reporting by Rama Venkat in Bengaluru;Editing by Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Under the provision cited by the RBI for the meeting, the central bank is required to write a letter to the Indian government explaining its inability to meet the target. A source familiar with the matter confirmed that the meeting has been called to discuss the response to be sent to the government. The MPC, established in 2016, is mandated to keep inflation within 2 percentage points on either side of its 4% target. Reuters GraphicsThe central bank has cited a series of supply shocks, most recently due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as one of the reasons for missing the inflation target. Reuters reported the government was comfortable with the central bank meeting the target over the medium term.

☆ India cenbank's FX intervention via forwards may hamper rupee's defence -analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) forex intervention through forward dollar sales instead of an on-spot basis may undermine its effort to boost the rupee, analysts said. The central bank has been selling dollars in spot and conducting buy/sell swaps to shift the delivery of dollars to a future date. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterA buy/sell swap involves an agreement to buy dollars at the spot date and to sell dollars at a future predetermined rate. The difference between the sell rate and the buy rate is the forward premium. Meanwhile, the fall in premiums also dissuades exporters to sell dollar forward.

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